Some Research Aspects of Telecommunication Technologies' Development Process
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.20535/RADAP.2014.56.88-95Keywords:
mathematical model, function’s construction telecommunication technologies, the estimation and prognosis methodAbstract
Development of the telecommunication technologies is being represented by complex dependencies. This work is devoted to some aspects of these dependencies’ research. Development laws of the technology’s life cycle are interested nowadays by many professionals in the field of informatization and telecommunications, as well as in economics, marketing and sociology. This wide interest among experts from a sufficiently diverse subject fields makes necessary a development and study of mathematical model of the various technologies’ development process. With the help of such model it is possible to define patterns, common to all fields of activity, to find the parameters that significantly affect the characteristics of the various technologies’ development process in order to predict its course in further.
Carried studies have shown that the mathematical apparatus of the population dynamics is not enough to thoroughly analyze the variety of possible forms of the technology’s life cycle and to set particular properties of the investigated process. For this purpose authors formalized the concept of the kinetic curve and introduced the function describing the development of technology life cycle in time. Using different values of this function’s parameters and choosing the different representations of the function, it is possible to construct a large family of curves representing different variants of technologies development, namely: highly oscillatory; sufficiently smooth; with greater or lesser number of extreme points. Such diversity of the function’s behavior makes it convenient for the usage in simulation models that describe the life cycle of various technologies.
A mathematical model based on the theory of the ordinary differential equations is proposed in the paper. This model allows constructing the function that describes the process of the development and changing in the telecommunication technologies. After analyses of the proposed curvature a method for receiving of the potential revenues estimation at the different stages of the telecommunication technologies’ life cycle is proposed. This formalization gives an opportunity to develop the methods for the estimation and prognosis of the technologies’ usage at the telecommunication networks in Ukraine.
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